El Niño 80% Likely, Will Trigger Extreme Temperature and Rainfall: WMO Warning
Summary
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that there is an 80% probability of El Niño developing by mid-2026, posing significant risks of extreme temperatures and erratic rainfall globally.
●El Niño is a periodic warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that disrupts normal atmospheric circulation patterns, leading to droughts in some regions and floods in others.
●The last major El Niño event (2023–24) was the strongest on record and contributed to record-breaking global temperatures.
●For India, El Niño typically suppresses the southwest monsoon, threatening agricultural output, water security, and food inflation.
●The WMO warning underscores the compounding effect of climate change on natural climate variability, making El Niño events more intense and their consequences more severe.
●India must urgently strengthen early warning systems, drought-proofing of agriculture, and inter-ministerial climate resilience frameworks to mitigate socioeconomic disruptions.
El Niño is a climate pattern caused by anomalous warming of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
●It occurs every 2–7 years and is part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
●Its counterpart, La Niña, involves cooling of the same region.
●WMO monitors ENSO through the Global Climate Observing System.
●El Niño weakens the Walker Circulation, reducing moisture transport to South Asia and suppressing Indian monsoon rainfall.
●The 2023–24 El Niño was the strongest since 1950.
●Climate change is now superimposing additional warming on El Niño events, amplifying their destructive potential.
●For UPSC, note the distinction between El Niño, La Niña, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which can partially offset El Niño's negative monsoon impact.
El Niño suppresses India's southwest monsoon by weakening the Walker Circulation, directly threatening agricultural productivity and food security — a recurring UPSC theme linking physical geography to socioeconomic outcomes.
◎ In Simple Words
Imagine the Pacific Ocean is like a giant bathtub — normally the warm water stays on one side, but sometimes it sloshes to the other side, and that is called El Niño. Scientists at the United Nations weather agency say there is an 80% chance this will happen soon, which is like saying it is very likely to rain when you see dark clouds. When El Niño happens, India often gets less rain during its monsoon season, which means farmers may struggle to grow enough food. Countries around the world need to prepare for hotter temperatures, floods in some places, and droughts in others.
Factual Pointers
Practice · 1 question
Which of the following best describes the mechanism by which El Niño suppresses the Indian southwest monsoon?
Climate Change & Negotiations
This sub-topic has appeared in 16 UPSC Prelims questions.