El Niño 80% Likely, Will Trigger Extreme Temperature and Rainfall: WMO Warning
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Article summary
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that there is an 80% probability of El Niño developing by mid-2026, posing significant risks of extreme temperatures and erratic rainfall globally. El Niño is a periodic warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that disrupts normal atmospheric circulation patterns, leading to droughts in some regions and floods in others. The last major El Niño event (2023–24) was the strongest on record and contributed to record-breaking global temperatures. For India, El Niño typically suppresses the southwest monsoon, threatening agricultural output, water security, and food inflation. The WMO warning underscores the compounding effect of climate change on natural climate variability, making El Niño events more intense and their consequences more severe. India must urgently strengthen early warning systems, drought-proofing of agriculture, and inter-ministerial climate resilience frameworks to mitigate socioeconomic disruptions.
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Sample questions — answers revealed after test
Q1. El Niño is characterised by anomalous warming of sea surface temperatures in a specific oceanic region. Which of the following correctly identifies both the region affected and the broader climate cycle of which El Niño is a part?
Q2. The WMO has forecast an 80% probability of El Niño conditions persisting into the 2026 monsoon season. A policy analyst is advising the Ministry of Agriculture on expected agricultural impacts for India. Which of the following chains of reasoning is most consistent with the established atmospheric mechanism linking El Niño to Indian monsoon outcomes?
Q3. Consider the following statements regarding El Niño, its interactions with other climate phenomena, and India's institutional preparedness: 1. La Niña, the counterpart of El Niño within the ENSO cycle, involves anomalous cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and is generally associated with above-normal monsoon rainfall over India. 2. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can partially offset the monsoon-suppressing effects of El Niño because it enhances sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean, promoting convection and moisture flow toward South Asia. 3. Under anthropogenic climate change, El Niño events are projected to occur more frequently — at intervals shorter than the natural 2–7 year cycle — with their intensity remaining unchanged because warming affects only baseline temperatures. 4. The WMO monitors ENSO conditions through the Global Climate Observing System, while India's primary agency responsible for seasonal monsoon forecasts is the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Which of the statements given above are correct?