Twenty Years of Watching the Earth: MoES, the IMD and the NOVA Nowcast
Behind cyclone warnings and monsoon forecasts sits an institutional machine — and its newest tools target the hardest problem, the sudden local storm
What happened
An aspirant should read a foundation-day announcement for the science-and-institutions story it carries. India's improving cyclone and monsoon forecasts rest on a specific ministry and its agencies, and the frontier now is the sudden local storm — the thunderstorm and lightning strike that kill more Indians annually than cyclones. NOVA and the new Centres of Excellence target exactly that hardest, most life-relevant forecasting problem.
Forecast ranges and why nowcasting is hardest
| Range | Horizon | Difficulty for local storms |
|---|---|---|
| Nowcast (NOVA) | Next few hours | Hardest — small, fast events |
| Short-range | 1–3 days | Moderate |
| Medium-range | Up to ~10 days | Broad patterns |
| Seasonal | Months (e.g. monsoon) | Statistical, not local |
Source: India Meteorological Department; Ministry of Earth Sciences
The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), established in 2006, is the umbrella ministry for India's atmospheric, oceanic, cryospheric and seismological sciences.
●It oversees a family of institutions: the India Meteorological Department (IMD, founded 1875), the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, and the National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research, among others, and it runs the Deep Ocean Mission.
●Forecasting is often described in ranges: nowcasting (the next few hours), short-range, medium-range and long-range or seasonal forecasts.
●Nowcasting severe convective weather — thunderstorms, lightning, hail, squalls — is especially difficult because these events are small in scale and short-lived, forming and dissipating within hours, and they cause large annual mortality in India, with lightning among the leading causes of accidental death by natural forces.
●The NOVA system targets this nowcasting problem, and the new Centres of Excellence aim to strengthen research capacity.
●Improved forecasting feeds directly into disaster preparedness under the disaster-management framework, since a warning is useful only if it reaches those at risk in time to act.
The Ministry of Earth Sciences (2006) and the IMD (1875) provide India's weather, ocean and seismic services; the new NOVA system targets nowcasting — predicting sudden thunderstorms and lightning hours ahead, the hardest and most life-relevant forecasting problem.
◎ In Simple Words
Twenty years ago, India created a ministry to study the weather, oceans and earthquakes. The weather office (IMD) under it has become much better at predicting cyclones and the monsoon. On its foundation day it launched new research centres and a system called NOVA to predict sudden thunderstorms and lightning a few hours in advance. This is one of the hardest things to forecast because storms form and vanish quickly in small areas — but it is also one of the most useful, because thunderstorms and lightning kill thousands of people in India every year, and a timely warning can save lives.
Factual Pointers
Practice · 2 questions
With reference to the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), which one of the following statements is correct?
'Nowcasting', which the NOVA system targets, refers to which of the following?
Mains Practice Questions
Forecasting capability rests on sustained institutional investment. Examine with reference to the Ministry of Earth Sciences and India's improving weather services.
Nowcasting severe local weather is the frontier of forecasting because it is where skill is lowest and mortality highest. Discuss.
A forecast saves lives only through the last mile of warning dissemination. Analyse how earth-system science and disaster governance must work together.
MCQ Practice
3 questions on this article
With trap analysis, approach guide, and UPSC angle
Frequently Asked
· People also askWhat did the IMD launch on the MoES Foundation Day?
The India Meteorological Department launched thirteen Centres of Excellence and the NOVA system for thunderstorm monitoring, as the Ministry of Earth Sciences marked twenty years since its creation in 2006. NOVA targets nowcasting — very short-range prediction of severe local weather like thunderstorms and lightning.
GS3 · Science & TechnologyThis is among the hardest forecasting problems, and one of the most life-relevant, since lightning and thunderstorms cause large annual mortality in India.
SOURCE Ministry of Earth Sciences
What is the Ministry of Earth Sciences?
The umbrella ministry, established in 2006, for India's atmospheric, oceanic and seismological sciences. It oversees the India Meteorological Department (1875), the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services and others, and runs the Deep Ocean Mission.
GS3 · InstitutionsIt provides India's weather, climate, ocean and earthquake services, the backbone behind steadily improving forecast accuracy.
SOURCE Ministry of Earth Sciences
What is nowcasting and why is it difficult?
Nowcasting is very short-range forecasting, over the next few hours, of fast-forming severe local weather such as thunderstorms, lightning and squalls. It is difficult because these events are small in scale and short-lived, forming and dissipating within hours, unlike large slow systems such as cyclones.
GS3 · MeteorologyIt matters greatly because lightning and thunderstorms kill large numbers of people in India each year, and short-lead warnings can save lives.
SOURCE India Meteorological Department
Why does nowcasting matter for disaster management?
Because thunderstorms and lightning cause heavy annual mortality in India, especially among farmers and outdoor workers, and short-lead warnings can save lives if they reach the vulnerable in time. Improving nowcasting directly strengthens disaster preparedness against these fast-onset hazards.
GS3 · Disaster ManagementThe gain is realised only through the last mile — warning dissemination and local response — so science and disaster governance must work together.
SOURCE National Disaster Management Authority
How does earth-system science connect to climate resilience?
As climate change makes extreme weather more frequent and intense, accurate forecasting for agriculture, disaster preparedness and planning becomes more valuable. The MoES institutions provide the observational and predictive backbone on which adaptation depends, making investment in earth-system science a form of climate-resilience infrastructure.
GS3 · Climate adaptationImproving prediction of extremes is a direct adaptation measure against a worsening hazard landscape.
SOURCE Ministry of Earth Sciences