106 Reservoirs Below 40% As Weather Office Flags Weak Monsoon Risk
Summary
As of early June 2026, 106 of India's major reservoirs are storing less than 40% of their live storage capacity, coinciding with IMD's forecast that the 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall will be approximately 10% below normal, partly attributed to El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean.
●India's 150 major reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission (CWC) are critical lifelines for irrigation, drinking water, and hydropower generation, collectively accounting for a significant share of the country's total live storage capacity.
●El Niño — a periodic warming of central and eastern Pacific Ocean surface temperatures — historically suppresses Indian monsoon rainfall by disrupting the moisture-laden winds that travel from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal toward the subcontinent.
●A deficient monsoon compounds existing water stress, threatening kharif crop sowing, raising food inflation risks, and increasing dependence on groundwater, which is already over-exploited in many states.
●For India, where nearly 50% of net sown area remains rain-fed, a below-normal monsoon has cascading implications for agricultural output, rural livelihoods, and macroeconomic stability.
Oceanography & Water Resources
This sub-topic has appeared in 13 UPSC Prelims questions.
The Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 150 major reservoirs across India with a total live storage capacity of approximately 178 BCM (billion cubic metres), representing about 69% of India's total estimated live storage capacity of 257 BCM. Reservoir levels are reported weekly and serve as a key indicator for drought early warning systems.
●El Niño is declared when sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the central-eastern Pacific Ocean are at least 0.5°C above the long-period average for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods.
●IMD classifies a monsoon season as 'deficient' when rainfall is less than 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), which is calculated as 87 cm for the June–September period based on data from 1971–2020.
●The southwest monsoon typically arrives in Kerala by June 1 and covers the entire country by July 15.
A below-normal monsoon triggered by El Niño, combined with critically low reservoir levels, creates a compounded water-food-energy security crisis that tests India's drought preparedness and agricultural resilience simultaneously.
◎ In Simple Words
Imagine your water tank at home is less than half full, and the weather forecast says it might not rain much this summer — that is exactly the situation India is facing right now. More than 100 big water storage dams across the country have less than 40% water in them, which is worrying because people, farms, and power plants all depend on these reservoirs. Scientists say a weather pattern called El Niño, which is like a warm blanket over parts of the Pacific Ocean, is making the monsoon weaker than usual this year. If the rains are poor, farmers may not be able to grow enough food, and water could become scarce for millions of people.
Factual Pointers
Practice · 1 question
With reference to El Niño and its impact on the Indian monsoon, which of the following statements is/are correct?
1. El Niño is characterised by anomalous warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
2. El Niño years invariably result in a deficient monsoon over the entire Indian subcontinent.
3. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can partially offset the negative impact of El Niño on Indian monsoon rainfall.
Select the correct answer using the code given below:
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